Diving into the Cause of Death data from the ABS provides some sobering learnings regarding what the Australian government did to its people in 2021...
I have a different interpretation. I agree that lockdowns would cause an increase in chronic mortality as you demonstrate. But I don't think you would see any significant counter decrease in acute deaths within the time period you present.
Using your definition of "chronic", I would expect the decrease in acute deaths to be spread out over 1 to 20 years. Obviously, it depends how many life years those who died sooner than expected of their chronic condition had left but in the UK, according to the life tables, an 80 year old still has another 8 to 10 years of expected life on average if they made it that far.
What I think the data really shows is that COVID deaths are over-attributed.
My expectation would be for non-COVID sudden mortality to increase as well as chronic mortality, both during lockdown and in the aftermath due to the higher propensity for these to occur (higher levels of stress, for example) and lower propensity to treat properly (as you have correctly surmised).
As I showed in my two recent England analyses, the official COVID death count includes all the deaths due to what I described above of people who also, coincidentally, happened to either test positive or showed some ancillary symptoms of respiratory disease.
What you should really do is to assume that the sudden mortality deaths continue at the same rate as baseline. This is conservative. And then deduct those deaths you find from the official COVID tally.
What you might find is that there are very few deaths actually "due to" COVID at all. All the excess deaths were caused by government intervention. some were labelled erroneously as COVID. But COVID didn't kill anyone that wasn't already going to die of something else and more often than not, that something else was the government.
When I finally get the CoD data from the ONS for this period, I will most likely corroborate what you have here in the Australian data.
Lockdown may have taken out the few who weren't killed by blood clotting, vascular damage, neurological damage, organ damage, immune system damage, etc. caused by what are obviously horrifically dangerous, and ineffective, mRNA COVID injections (see VAERS reports in US). Worse still, medium to long term injection dangers remain to be seen. All for a virus which posed no meaningful danger for the vast majority of people (see IFR data), and virtually zero danger for healthy youngsters.
As yet, no Western government decision maker has admitted either mistakes or culpability. Our NHS is still wrapped in masks. Talk is of again closing schools. No one has said PCR test is flawed or that Vaccine passports were expensive ,coercive and wholly ineffective. The original justification for Lockdowns was to slow the transmission, in order to allow health services to get organised....I thought the original Pandemic plan contained that. After that ..why did we lock up people? Did anyone think a virus can actually be contained?---- Of course we cannot get asking the questions ,let alone anyone to answer.
Some researchers and MDs assert it was a matter of proper treatment and if we had this there would not have been a "pandemic." That is an unwarranted assumption. When has it ever been a thing that people had to have IVM, HCQ, or a bunch of supplements on board every time a virus came around to prevent death?
There was a never a pandemic and no unique viral pathogen that required extraordinary measures.
The excess mortality was CAUSED by aggressive government and medical actions that stressed and isolated fragile groups, not by denying treatment of infection for a particular pathogen.
Infection took hold and worsened because the vulnerable individuals were further weakened by added pharma toxins, psychological attacks and social isolation.
"Non-treatment" and "abusive treatment took many forms: denial of antibiotic use , remdesivir, vents, hosital. closures etc. The 2nd amplified the first. Objective: to maximise death.
None of this is contingent on there being a particular pathogen. Outright fear, psychological stress, pre-existing health conditions (mutually reinforcing in the cohort with these) and health system closure/denial of treatment for a "range" of infections/conditions increased the pool of vulnerable people.
This was and is a massive operation folks not an epidemiological event.
Off topic but I have just found, to my complete and utter astonishment, that there is a mainstream journalist, Frank Chung, from the Courier Mail, publishing accurate stories about vaccine injury in Australia. Long piece on Kerry Phelps' vaccine injury just appeared; she herself is on OZSAGE, which I didn't know.
You've got enough data in your various categories to run matched pair T-tests to reassure the pessimists among us that you really have significant differences between the two groups.
I don’t know about ABS data, more people commenting about funerals this year. Oldies commenting on their new dodgy hips, looking frail, cardiologist visits, arthritic painful necks etc. Hear it a lot. Covid, in its entirety, is a mass disabling event. Fully expect with all the younger, new migrants in Australia, “democracy” will vote for nationalising individual superannuation accounts from the older traditional classes.
I have a different interpretation. I agree that lockdowns would cause an increase in chronic mortality as you demonstrate. But I don't think you would see any significant counter decrease in acute deaths within the time period you present.
Using your definition of "chronic", I would expect the decrease in acute deaths to be spread out over 1 to 20 years. Obviously, it depends how many life years those who died sooner than expected of their chronic condition had left but in the UK, according to the life tables, an 80 year old still has another 8 to 10 years of expected life on average if they made it that far.
What I think the data really shows is that COVID deaths are over-attributed.
My expectation would be for non-COVID sudden mortality to increase as well as chronic mortality, both during lockdown and in the aftermath due to the higher propensity for these to occur (higher levels of stress, for example) and lower propensity to treat properly (as you have correctly surmised).
As I showed in my two recent England analyses, the official COVID death count includes all the deaths due to what I described above of people who also, coincidentally, happened to either test positive or showed some ancillary symptoms of respiratory disease.
What you should really do is to assume that the sudden mortality deaths continue at the same rate as baseline. This is conservative. And then deduct those deaths you find from the official COVID tally.
What you might find is that there are very few deaths actually "due to" COVID at all. All the excess deaths were caused by government intervention. some were labelled erroneously as COVID. But COVID didn't kill anyone that wasn't already going to die of something else and more often than not, that something else was the government.
When I finally get the CoD data from the ONS for this period, I will most likely corroborate what you have here in the Australian data.
Lockdown may have taken out the few who weren't killed by blood clotting, vascular damage, neurological damage, organ damage, immune system damage, etc. caused by what are obviously horrifically dangerous, and ineffective, mRNA COVID injections (see VAERS reports in US). Worse still, medium to long term injection dangers remain to be seen. All for a virus which posed no meaningful danger for the vast majority of people (see IFR data), and virtually zero danger for healthy youngsters.
Ozzies are being genocided like everyone else. The end.
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/12/10/incredibly-high-excess-deaths-must-be-investigated-says-australias-top-actuary-body/
As yet, no Western government decision maker has admitted either mistakes or culpability. Our NHS is still wrapped in masks. Talk is of again closing schools. No one has said PCR test is flawed or that Vaccine passports were expensive ,coercive and wholly ineffective. The original justification for Lockdowns was to slow the transmission, in order to allow health services to get organised....I thought the original Pandemic plan contained that. After that ..why did we lock up people? Did anyone think a virus can actually be contained?---- Of course we cannot get asking the questions ,let alone anyone to answer.
Some researchers and MDs assert it was a matter of proper treatment and if we had this there would not have been a "pandemic." That is an unwarranted assumption. When has it ever been a thing that people had to have IVM, HCQ, or a bunch of supplements on board every time a virus came around to prevent death?
There was a never a pandemic and no unique viral pathogen that required extraordinary measures.
The excess mortality was CAUSED by aggressive government and medical actions that stressed and isolated fragile groups, not by denying treatment of infection for a particular pathogen.
Infection took hold and worsened because the vulnerable individuals were further weakened by added pharma toxins, psychological attacks and social isolation.
"Non-treatment" and "abusive treatment took many forms: denial of antibiotic use , remdesivir, vents, hosital. closures etc. The 2nd amplified the first. Objective: to maximise death.
None of this is contingent on there being a particular pathogen. Outright fear, psychological stress, pre-existing health conditions (mutually reinforcing in the cohort with these) and health system closure/denial of treatment for a "range" of infections/conditions increased the pool of vulnerable people.
This was and is a massive operation folks not an epidemiological event.
But 2022 is far worse, for a different reason. The jabs , which not only kill but were ineffective against Omicron
Off topic but I have just found, to my complete and utter astonishment, that there is a mainstream journalist, Frank Chung, from the Courier Mail, publishing accurate stories about vaccine injury in Australia. Long piece on Kerry Phelps' vaccine injury just appeared; she herself is on OZSAGE, which I didn't know.
You've got enough data in your various categories to run matched pair T-tests to reassure the pessimists among us that you really have significant differences between the two groups.
I think you'll find 2022 will make your eyes bulge. Aside from large numbers of Covid(?) deaths the death rates have really taken off - https://gab.com/Animal_Acts/posts/109477423351774868
I don’t know about ABS data, more people commenting about funerals this year. Oldies commenting on their new dodgy hips, looking frail, cardiologist visits, arthritic painful necks etc. Hear it a lot. Covid, in its entirety, is a mass disabling event. Fully expect with all the younger, new migrants in Australia, “democracy” will vote for nationalising individual superannuation accounts from the older traditional classes.
Lockdown was THEE crime, telling us, this is jail. Now go to your cell
You do not factor in how stress contributes to mortality. Covid =detox. No pathogen! The only cause of death greater than government is doctors.