Lockdowns in Australia - did they cause an increase in Mortality?
Diving into the Cause of Death data from the ABS provides some sobering learnings regarding what the Australian government did to its people in 2021...
Mortality data used in this Substack comes from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and can be found here.
You should also know that I use a different Baseline to the ABS. To understand why you should first read this.
When you shut down society, you cut off treatment
This shouldn’t require too much of an explanation - when you institute a forced society-wide lockdown based on incessant fear mongering, you reduce the amount of medical treatment that people undergo. That might be because people are too scared to leave their home to seek treatment. It might be because you shut down certain services. It might be because you switch in-person care to televideo Zoom Doctoring.
Whatever the reason, it doesn’t matter. Lockdowns = reduced treatment, and reduced treatment = increased deaths.
OK, so prove it…
Chronic Mortality vs. Sudden Mortality
The point of treating a Chronic Illness (cancer, diabetes etc.) is not just to increase quality of life for those suffering from them, but also to delay (if not remove altogether) the instances of mortality arising from these illnesses. Considering that we unfortunately will all die sooner or later, if we are successful in treating Chronic Illness then the result will be, eventually, death due to Sudden Illness (heart attack, stroke etc.). What we want is to stop the sooner deaths due to Chronic Illnesses and increase the later deaths due to Sudden Illnesses, so to speak.
While it is true that a reduction in medical care would see some effects on the types of Sudden Deaths we experience (heart attacks, strokes etc.) due to us not having the opportunity to spot issues before they become severe, the biggest impact on reducing medical care is going to hit in the form of increased negative events from Chronic Illnesses - not undergoing treatment for cancer or diabetes, or reduced in person visiting to elderly citizens experiencing conditions such as Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s diseases in aged care (which, among other things, can lead to depression that expedites neurodegenerative decline).
From this we can deduce the following - if “Lockdown Deaths” are a real and legitimate thing, then we would see an increase in mortality from Chronic Illnesses that was somewhat offset by a decrease in mortality from Sudden Illnesses.
Fortunately for us, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) does provide some specific Cause of Death data in their Provisional Mortality Statistics.
The ABS breaks down mortality data into 8 subcategories:
Cancer;
Diabetes;
Dementia;
Ischemic Heart Disease;
Respiratory Illness;
Cerebrovascular;
COVID-19;
Other (Note: They don’t have an actual “Other” category, but you can get this simply by subtracting the previous 7 Causes from the total mortality figures).
Now, we’ll obviously remove COVID-19 mortality from this discussion because, firstly, this is dodgy data (died “from” COVID vs. died “with” COVID) and, secondly, wasn’t the whole point of Loackdowns to reduce these COVID deaths…? We’ll also obviously remove “Other” from this discussion because that is a non-specific conglomeration of every other cause of death so cannot be attributed to Sudden or Chronic.
With the 6 remaining Causes of Death that have specific mortality figures, we can break these down into Sudden Deaths and Chronic Deaths, and fortunately for us we have 3 that fit into each category:
Sudden - Ischemic Heart Disease, Cerebrovascular (strokes/aneurysms) and Respiratory Illness (which may not be instantaneous but occurs over a much shorter time than Chronic Illnesses);
Chronic - Cancer, Diabetes and Dementia.
So, under the theory that Lockdown deaths would see a rise in Chronic mortality partially offset by a reduction in Sudden mortality, we should see the following:
A rise in Cancer, Diabetes and Dementia deaths in 2021;
A fall in Ischemic Heart Disease, Cerebrovascular and Respiratory Illness deaths in 2021.
So, let’s just jump straight into the data, shall we?
Chronic Illness Mortality in Australia in 2021
Cancer
Dementia
Diabetes
Red line above the Blue line in all 3. So far, the theory holds.
Sudden Illness Mortality in Australia in 2021
Ischemic Heart Disease
Cerebrovascular
Respiratory Disease
Red line below the Blue line in all 3.
The theory holds.
Conclusion
The ABS has given us all the data we need to verify that the following is true - Chronic Mortality rose in 2021 at the expense of Sudden Mortality, with the Overall Mortality being higher than the Baseline.
There is no further need for discussion - Lockdown Deaths are real, easily verifiable, and a crime committed by the Australian political class (and associated “medical” cartel) on their own citizens.
Even when you take out all of the questionable “COVID deaths” you still have easily identifiable overall Excess Mortality in Australia in 2021. This shows that not only did the Lockdowns kill people early through premature Chronic Illness deaths (which is a crime in itself as you cut away precious time that the elderly and vulnerable can spend with their families before they pass on), but that, overall, more people died then should have.
Lockdowns were a crime and they should not, in my opinion, go unpunished.
I have a different interpretation. I agree that lockdowns would cause an increase in chronic mortality as you demonstrate. But I don't think you would see any significant counter decrease in acute deaths within the time period you present.
Using your definition of "chronic", I would expect the decrease in acute deaths to be spread out over 1 to 20 years. Obviously, it depends how many life years those who died sooner than expected of their chronic condition had left but in the UK, according to the life tables, an 80 year old still has another 8 to 10 years of expected life on average if they made it that far.
What I think the data really shows is that COVID deaths are over-attributed.
My expectation would be for non-COVID sudden mortality to increase as well as chronic mortality, both during lockdown and in the aftermath due to the higher propensity for these to occur (higher levels of stress, for example) and lower propensity to treat properly (as you have correctly surmised).
As I showed in my two recent England analyses, the official COVID death count includes all the deaths due to what I described above of people who also, coincidentally, happened to either test positive or showed some ancillary symptoms of respiratory disease.
What you should really do is to assume that the sudden mortality deaths continue at the same rate as baseline. This is conservative. And then deduct those deaths you find from the official COVID tally.
What you might find is that there are very few deaths actually "due to" COVID at all. All the excess deaths were caused by government intervention. some were labelled erroneously as COVID. But COVID didn't kill anyone that wasn't already going to die of something else and more often than not, that something else was the government.
When I finally get the CoD data from the ONS for this period, I will most likely corroborate what you have here in the Australian data.
Lockdown may have taken out the few who weren't killed by blood clotting, vascular damage, neurological damage, organ damage, immune system damage, etc. caused by what are obviously horrifically dangerous, and ineffective, mRNA COVID injections (see VAERS reports in US). Worse still, medium to long term injection dangers remain to be seen. All for a virus which posed no meaningful danger for the vast majority of people (see IFR data), and virtually zero danger for healthy youngsters.