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Joel Smalley's avatar

I have a different interpretation. I agree that lockdowns would cause an increase in chronic mortality as you demonstrate. But I don't think you would see any significant counter decrease in acute deaths within the time period you present.

Using your definition of "chronic", I would expect the decrease in acute deaths to be spread out over 1 to 20 years. Obviously, it depends how many life years those who died sooner than expected of their chronic condition had left but in the UK, according to the life tables, an 80 year old still has another 8 to 10 years of expected life on average if they made it that far.

What I think the data really shows is that COVID deaths are over-attributed.

My expectation would be for non-COVID sudden mortality to increase as well as chronic mortality, both during lockdown and in the aftermath due to the higher propensity for these to occur (higher levels of stress, for example) and lower propensity to treat properly (as you have correctly surmised).

As I showed in my two recent England analyses, the official COVID death count includes all the deaths due to what I described above of people who also, coincidentally, happened to either test positive or showed some ancillary symptoms of respiratory disease.

What you should really do is to assume that the sudden mortality deaths continue at the same rate as baseline. This is conservative. And then deduct those deaths you find from the official COVID tally.

What you might find is that there are very few deaths actually "due to" COVID at all. All the excess deaths were caused by government intervention. some were labelled erroneously as COVID. But COVID didn't kill anyone that wasn't already going to die of something else and more often than not, that something else was the government.

When I finally get the CoD data from the ONS for this period, I will most likely corroborate what you have here in the Australian data.

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Cruising Economist's avatar

Lockdown may have taken out the few who weren't killed by blood clotting, vascular damage, neurological damage, organ damage, immune system damage, etc. caused by what are obviously horrifically dangerous, and ineffective, mRNA COVID injections (see VAERS reports in US). Worse still, medium to long term injection dangers remain to be seen. All for a virus which posed no meaningful danger for the vast majority of people (see IFR data), and virtually zero danger for healthy youngsters.

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