NSW, Australia experienced a clear and continuing trend in the decline in conceptions since the beginning of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout - and now we might just have the data to show it...
Great work DU. I just got time to read it properly and I agree about the hospital birth numbers - very stable over years (I have seen internal documents showing the same). Then suddenly a drop. This looks like 10% for 2022 but I believe this has got worse in 2023. I suspect that is why they don't want to release the data.
The very first thing they are going to do is to start blaming the decline in births on the economy. Although it's obvious to see that the vaccines* are doing what they are designed to do.
Perhaps I misunderstood. Are you thinking that the vaccines* are "safe and effective," or that they didn't have much effect on reproduction?
Australia was one of the first countries to set up their vaccine injury fund, in relation to the COVID vaccine* rollout.
I believe it requires someone to be hospitalized for more than one day though before they qualifiy. I saw an Australian news story, where the people they interviewed were angry, because the hospitals were making sure to discharge people same day for vaccine related issues. One guy said that they stabilized him (heart issues) and discharged him. Then he had to come back the next day, he was having a heart attack. They were able to install stents and sent him home again. However, because he never stayed overnight, he's not eligible for compensation. Now he's in debt because of medical bills.
It's not normal practice to install stents, and off you go.
No, I'm just saying that "economic uncertainty" doesn't actually stop Australians from having children, so that argument won't hold water if they try to use it.
Ahh, I see. Here in the US they are liable to avoid it as well, but not because people wouldn't buy it. They'll avoid it here because it will put focus on the ways that the Biden regime is actively destroying the US economy. They are still in the middle of lying to people and saying that everything is just fine.
Good work keeping an eye out for clues. I don’t expect any official data until about October this year, this may be an early warning but I’ve been down this rabbit hole before. I think it’s just data lag in registrations. The missing births are similar to the December and November ABS data lag that got people predicting doom and gloom. I saw something similar last year when I also thought I had found a smoking gun then realized it was just data lag.
Births have been declining in Australia, particular in NSW for some time. 2021 was a bit of a baby boom in an otherwise general downward trend. Also, if you scale the y-axis to 0-19500 the decline doesn’t look anywhere near as dramatic. I just ran the last 13 years and anything around about +5% to -7% of 2022 would be within expectation. I don’t think you should read too much into a baby name article but it may be an early indicator. I hope your wrong but I think you may be right based on the overseas data that’s starting to come out.
I will have to respectfully disagree on a couple of points:
1) Births may have been declining in NSW but Public Hospital admissions for births have not faced the same rate of decline. This is because, as a % of overall births, PH births in NSW have actually been increasing (74% in 2015 to 80% in 2021). So, to see such a sudden decline in 2022 is very abnormal. Yes, there is some chance that this is a Pull Forward Effect, but if it extends even one more quarter than that argument is done and dusted as the PFE would have been fully compensated for.
I actually expect the Q1 2023 data out in the next few weeks so will have that answer regarding PFE and I can check if any of the 2022 data was updated, indicating lag (which I will also comment on below).
2) It fits the timeline. It's not just an overall annual figure, which can be misleading. The continuing decrease fits the continuing vaccine rollout. At the very least, it makes it suspicious.
3) Data lag - disagree because of the source. Yes, registration of births can have a lag and thus make things like the ABS all wonky. I already mentioned this in the Substack in regards to the note at the bottom of the NSW Govt. Top Baby Names of 2022 press release. However, PH Admissions are not registered (a process that takes time and can thus have lag) - they are live data and not subject to the same lag. It was finding this data that convinced me to write this piece.
"While quarterly data is also available for registered births, we prefer to use perinatal and public hospital data due to the registration delays in the register data which may lead to an inaccurate portrayal of the trends over time (Wilson 2017). With register data we are unable to tell if a decline in registered births in one quarter is due to a decline in births, or to decline in registrations (for example due to lockdowns). With the perinatal data and public hospital data which record births at time of occurrence, we have more confidence that any temporal trends observed represent actual trends in the number of births."
4) Contrary to what you commented, 2021 was not a Baby Boom. 90,059 babies in NSW vs. 90,045 in 2020. Almost exactly the same. Yes, there was a surge early but then it settled to be in a similar position. So, 2020 (non-lockdown conceptions) and 2021 (lockdown conceptions) showed no difference. There's no reason to think 2022 wouldn't be the same, or would experience a 7.4% decline.
Yes, the 2015-2019 period was higher (2015, 2017-2019 were 95-96,000 births with 2016 having a little bump at 98,000) but, once again, pretty steady on the PH births side. If you actually take out the 2021 and Q1, 2022 data on the Conceptions graph (so, eliminate the vaccine period) and run a trendline on that graph it is almost perfectly flat - that's how stable the PH Admissions are.
So, while I understand the reluctance, I think this live data set is far more secure than the wonky ABS release. Yes, PFE remains an outside chance but we'll have that question settled in a matter of weeks. And the reltive stability of the PH Admissions numbers give further credence to...something...occurrng.
I actually agree you, I hope you’re wrong but I think you’re probably right but I haven’t seen anything (yet) that fully convinces me that it’s happening.
Thanks for the info and link. The only place I remember being able to find birth information is the ABS and AIHW. The AIHW data was what made me realize the ABS data was lagging when everyone else was talking about a massive decline for 2021 which turned out to be a mini baby boom. The 2021 baby boom comment was based on ABS data which is also in your link. I’ve got some monthly data up until Sept 2022 for Australia in a spreadsheet but can’t find the original source (can’t remember where I found it) and it looks (to me) like births are just reverting to the mean. I’ve edited my comment above to say +5% to -7% for 2022 which is what I meant not 2021 like I wrote.
Great work DU. I just got time to read it properly and I agree about the hospital birth numbers - very stable over years (I have seen internal documents showing the same). Then suddenly a drop. This looks like 10% for 2022 but I believe this has got worse in 2023. I suspect that is why they don't want to release the data.
Great stuff, Peter - keep it coming!
Here is my contribution:
https://www.garymoller.com/post/are-births-in-new-zealand-declining
The very first thing they are going to do is to start blaming the decline in births on the economy. Although it's obvious to see that the vaccines* are doing what they are designed to do.
It's not in the "news" yet, but it will be.
The Q2/Q3 surge in conceptions in the middle of the early phase of the COVID scare kill that argument dead in the water.
When things were most uncertain we had one quarter of decline and then we started smashing out babies.
Australians, just like everyone else, want families, and they'll find ways to do it even in the middle of uncertainty.
Perhaps I misunderstood. Are you thinking that the vaccines* are "safe and effective," or that they didn't have much effect on reproduction?
Australia was one of the first countries to set up their vaccine injury fund, in relation to the COVID vaccine* rollout.
I believe it requires someone to be hospitalized for more than one day though before they qualifiy. I saw an Australian news story, where the people they interviewed were angry, because the hospitals were making sure to discharge people same day for vaccine related issues. One guy said that they stabilized him (heart issues) and discharged him. Then he had to come back the next day, he was having a heart attack. They were able to install stents and sent him home again. However, because he never stayed overnight, he's not eligible for compensation. Now he's in debt because of medical bills.
It's not normal practice to install stents, and off you go.
https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/covid-19-vaccine-claims-scheme
No, I'm just saying that "economic uncertainty" doesn't actually stop Australians from having children, so that argument won't hold water if they try to use it.
Ahh, I see. Here in the US they are liable to avoid it as well, but not because people wouldn't buy it. They'll avoid it here because it will put focus on the ways that the Biden regime is actively destroying the US economy. They are still in the middle of lying to people and saying that everything is just fine.
Good work keeping an eye out for clues. I don’t expect any official data until about October this year, this may be an early warning but I’ve been down this rabbit hole before. I think it’s just data lag in registrations. The missing births are similar to the December and November ABS data lag that got people predicting doom and gloom. I saw something similar last year when I also thought I had found a smoking gun then realized it was just data lag.
Births have been declining in Australia, particular in NSW for some time. 2021 was a bit of a baby boom in an otherwise general downward trend. Also, if you scale the y-axis to 0-19500 the decline doesn’t look anywhere near as dramatic. I just ran the last 13 years and anything around about +5% to -7% of 2022 would be within expectation. I don’t think you should read too much into a baby name article but it may be an early indicator. I hope your wrong but I think you may be right based on the overseas data that’s starting to come out.
Hi Ivo - I've updated the Substack to address some of your questions. Cheers, mate.
I will have to respectfully disagree on a couple of points:
1) Births may have been declining in NSW but Public Hospital admissions for births have not faced the same rate of decline. This is because, as a % of overall births, PH births in NSW have actually been increasing (74% in 2015 to 80% in 2021). So, to see such a sudden decline in 2022 is very abnormal. Yes, there is some chance that this is a Pull Forward Effect, but if it extends even one more quarter than that argument is done and dusted as the PFE would have been fully compensated for.
I actually expect the Q1 2023 data out in the next few weeks so will have that answer regarding PFE and I can check if any of the 2022 data was updated, indicating lag (which I will also comment on below).
2) It fits the timeline. It's not just an overall annual figure, which can be misleading. The continuing decrease fits the continuing vaccine rollout. At the very least, it makes it suspicious.
3) Data lag - disagree because of the source. Yes, registration of births can have a lag and thus make things like the ABS all wonky. I already mentioned this in the Substack in regards to the note at the bottom of the NSW Govt. Top Baby Names of 2022 press release. However, PH Admissions are not registered (a process that takes time and can thus have lag) - they are live data and not subject to the same lag. It was finding this data that convinced me to write this piece.
"While quarterly data is also available for registered births, we prefer to use perinatal and public hospital data due to the registration delays in the register data which may lead to an inaccurate portrayal of the trends over time (Wilson 2017). With register data we are unable to tell if a decline in registered births in one quarter is due to a decline in births, or to decline in registrations (for example due to lockdowns). With the perinatal data and public hospital data which record births at time of occurrence, we have more confidence that any temporal trends observed represent actual trends in the number of births."
https://www.australianpopulationstudies.org/index.php/aps/article/view/101
Download the pdf - Page 10.
4) Contrary to what you commented, 2021 was not a Baby Boom. 90,059 babies in NSW vs. 90,045 in 2020. Almost exactly the same. Yes, there was a surge early but then it settled to be in a similar position. So, 2020 (non-lockdown conceptions) and 2021 (lockdown conceptions) showed no difference. There's no reason to think 2022 wouldn't be the same, or would experience a 7.4% decline.
Yes, the 2015-2019 period was higher (2015, 2017-2019 were 95-96,000 births with 2016 having a little bump at 98,000) but, once again, pretty steady on the PH births side. If you actually take out the 2021 and Q1, 2022 data on the Conceptions graph (so, eliminate the vaccine period) and run a trendline on that graph it is almost perfectly flat - that's how stable the PH Admissions are.
So, while I understand the reluctance, I think this live data set is far more secure than the wonky ABS release. Yes, PFE remains an outside chance but we'll have that question settled in a matter of weeks. And the reltive stability of the PH Admissions numbers give further credence to...something...occurrng.
I actually agree you, I hope you’re wrong but I think you’re probably right but I haven’t seen anything (yet) that fully convinces me that it’s happening.
Thanks for the info and link. The only place I remember being able to find birth information is the ABS and AIHW. The AIHW data was what made me realize the ABS data was lagging when everyone else was talking about a massive decline for 2021 which turned out to be a mini baby boom. The 2021 baby boom comment was based on ABS data which is also in your link. I’ve got some monthly data up until Sept 2022 for Australia in a spreadsheet but can’t find the original source (can’t remember where I found it) and it looks (to me) like births are just reverting to the mean. I’ve edited my comment above to say +5% to -7% for 2022 which is what I meant not 2021 like I wrote.
ABS (2022) Registrations (NSW)
2018 98,626
2019 98,678
2020 94,822
2021 101,333