NSW, Australia experienced a clear and continuing trend in the decline in conceptions since the beginning of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout - and now we might just have the data to show it...
Great work DU. I just got time to read it properly and I agree about the hospital birth numbers - very stable over years (I have seen internal documents showing the same). Then suddenly a drop. This looks like 10% for 2022 but I believe this has got worse in 2023. I suspect that is why they don't want to release the data.
The very first thing they are going to do is to start blaming the decline in births on the economy. Although it's obvious to see that the vaccines* are doing what they are designed to do.
Good work keeping an eye out for clues. I don’t expect any official data until about October this year, this may be an early warning but I’ve been down this rabbit hole before. I think it’s just data lag in registrations. The missing births are similar to the December and November ABS data lag that got people predicting doom and gloom. I saw something similar last year when I also thought I had found a smoking gun then realized it was just data lag.
Births have been declining in Australia, particular in NSW for some time. 2021 was a bit of a baby boom in an otherwise general downward trend. Also, if you scale the y-axis to 0-19500 the decline doesn’t look anywhere near as dramatic. I just ran the last 13 years and anything around about +5% to -7% of 2022 would be within expectation. I don’t think you should read too much into a baby name article but it may be an early indicator. I hope your wrong but I think you may be right based on the overseas data that’s starting to come out.
Great work DU. I just got time to read it properly and I agree about the hospital birth numbers - very stable over years (I have seen internal documents showing the same). Then suddenly a drop. This looks like 10% for 2022 but I believe this has got worse in 2023. I suspect that is why they don't want to release the data.
Great stuff, Peter - keep it coming!
Here is my contribution:
https://www.garymoller.com/post/are-births-in-new-zealand-declining
The very first thing they are going to do is to start blaming the decline in births on the economy. Although it's obvious to see that the vaccines* are doing what they are designed to do.
It's not in the "news" yet, but it will be.
Good work keeping an eye out for clues. I don’t expect any official data until about October this year, this may be an early warning but I’ve been down this rabbit hole before. I think it’s just data lag in registrations. The missing births are similar to the December and November ABS data lag that got people predicting doom and gloom. I saw something similar last year when I also thought I had found a smoking gun then realized it was just data lag.
Births have been declining in Australia, particular in NSW for some time. 2021 was a bit of a baby boom in an otherwise general downward trend. Also, if you scale the y-axis to 0-19500 the decline doesn’t look anywhere near as dramatic. I just ran the last 13 years and anything around about +5% to -7% of 2022 would be within expectation. I don’t think you should read too much into a baby name article but it may be an early indicator. I hope your wrong but I think you may be right based on the overseas data that’s starting to come out.